ConfirmThem

Congratulations to Nino. Here's hoping that his third decade on the bench sees him in more majorities than the previous two. I can think of no better way to celebrate his 20th anniversary than by him writing and then delivering the opinion of the Court from the bench in the case of Gonzales v Carhart, overruling Stenberg v Carhart and consigning it to its rightful place in the garbage.

On a related note, a poll just out today has the SD abortion law losing 47-39 with 14 undecided. The same poll shows that if the law included a rape/incest exception, it would pass overwhelmingly at 59-27, with 14 undecided. IOW, a full 20% of the voters will vote against it because it lacks the rape clause.

This is a tragedy and a real shame. I posted on the old site about this. Given that the data shows that you can count the rape related abortions in SD every year on one hand and that they represent less than 1% of the total number of abortions, it appears as if the need to go all in will result in the 99% of abortions taht aren't rape related continuing.

The defeat of and repeal of the law will also be a huge defeat for the prolife side and a huge pr blunder. It will give moemntum to the prochoice side and will discourage future laws.

Instead of being able to celebrate an overwhelming prolife victory, we will most likely be mourning a prolife defeat.

Will it really have been worth it to exclude the rape clause?

For the record, Curt, Scalia does not consider himself a "strict constructionist." See his 1997 book, "A Matter of Interpretation." "Textualist" would be nearer to the mark.

Helveticus: The blunder was not in the failure to include a rape exception, but in the passing of the law in the first place. Even pro-life stalwarts like Ramesh Ponnuru acknowledge that passing such laws, which are certain to be struck down as unconstitutional given the current state of abortion jurisprudence and the current SCOTUS pro-Roe majority, does nothing to aid the pro-life cause. The poll numbers you point to are simply more evidence of that. Pro-lifers and their allies in state legislatures could spend their energies better elsewhere.

isn't 39-47 considerable movement to our side though since the first polls? could be wrong, but i thought i recalled the first polls showing 50+ on the wrong side. take heart. it may (probably will) fail, but a close result will be more positive than negative on the whole though, i think, a harbinger of the dam about to break.

I agree the law was ill fated from jump and was destined to be struck down most likely, although if Stevens kicks the bucket in the next 18 months or so, watch out.

However, since there was action, given the choice bewteen:

a) In SD, Pro Lifers won a dramatic victory tonight as voters overwhelmingly approved a law that would ban all abortions other than the miniscule amount needed to save the life of the mother or as a result of rape. In the first test of abortion law in over 30 years, the pro life movement won a resounding victory.

or

b) In SD, the pro life movement suffered a crushing defeat as a law that would ban all abortions, even those resulting from rape and incest, was struck dwon last night. In the first test of abortion law in 30 years, a reinvigorated pro choice movement was able to achieve a victory that could wwell have ramifications for other states

I'll choose A.

Ultimate, I thought it was bad politics and it looks I was right. Although, there is 6 weeks to go beofre the election. Things could change.

South Dakotans have some pretty weighty issues to consider this fall. The abortion ban was trailing in the Mason-Dixon poll you refer to. However, I'm suspicious of the veracity of this poll. The same poll also found the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage also failing in SD, which I find highly suspect. There may be some states that would vote down a gay marriage ban, but I seriously doubt South Dakota would be such a state.

The thing about polling is that it's notorious for understating the conservative views on hot-button issues like abortion or homosexuality. To give you another example, a recent Mason-Dixon poll found Virginians supporting their gay marriage ban just 54%-40%, while a Survey USA poll found Virginians 68%-29% in favour. Naturally, that's a huge discrepancy, but I would be more inclined to believe that latter.

So, don't be surpised if South Dakotans approve this abortion ban handily.

Shouldn't Nino retire now, while there's a RPOTUS & 55 RSenators?

[/sarcasm]