ConfirmThem

We should not become complacent with this temporary victory. I am so pleased that McConnell showed some initiave for once and that Feinstein didn't buy into the rhetoric of Neas and Aron, but beware of scorned liberal special-interest groups! They are going to have a month to ratchet up the pressure on Reid.

What is that line from Clint. Go ahead make my day. What is Reid going to do. McConnell has the co-sponsors to file a motion to proceed. Filibuster? Just what the Republicans want them to do. They can shutdown the Senate with a Democratic led filibuster. Sweet. Once an issue is on the floor it is limitless debate. It either has to be voted on, withdrawn or be closed through cloture. McConnell doesn't withdraw and the Democrats deny cloture. Instant shutdown. The MSM won't be able to spin this one because the Democrats hold the majority. The only way out for Reid is to defeat Southwick in an up or down vote, whether that be on the nomination itself or on the motion to proceed.

http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070802/NEWS/70...

"The approval by the Senate Judiciary Committee sent his nomination to the full Senate where opponents said they would seek to derail it through a filibuster or extended debate."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,291937,00.html

"Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-NV, in a statement agreed to schedule a vote on the nominee, and aides say that will come after the month-long August recess. However, Reid said: "I remain strongly opposed to this nomination.""

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/feinsteins-flip-sends-southwick-to-t...

"Neas urged the full Senate to reject Southwick’s nomination. A floor vote is expected after the August recess.

Southwick is widely expected to have support from a majority of senators when he reaches the Senate floor. Sen. Ben Nelson (Neb.), a Democratic centrist, said yesterday that he would vote to confirm Southwick, giving the nominee crucial support in a chamber evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats.

Democratic opponents could still defeat Southwick’s nomination by blocking it with extended debate. But such a filibuster could quickly swell into a high-profile fight energizing the Republican base and putting pressure on Democrats from conservative states."

One of the Dems Presidential candidates will filibuster in an attempt to impress their base. Do we have 60 votes?

I'm not so sure about that. If Hillary or Obama filibuster, then they are setting the precedent for their controversial judicial nominees to be filibustered by the Republicans in the 111th Congress. They also risk making judges an issue in the 2008, an issue the Dems have not usually done well on. Would they want to take such risks?

Reid just implied on the senate floor that McConnell's "sense of the senate" amendment might be withdrawn tonight. If not, he said the issue may be resolved tomorrow after a vote on district court nominee DeGiusti in the morning.

Quite agree with your warning about the dangers of this over one-month recess, especially since I earlier made the point myself.

In that vein, I'm reprinting my post from the last thread, which you partly disputed (1st paragraph) in the last thread and partly echoed (paragraphs 2 and 3) in this one:

"The reasons behind Feinstein's vote are likely fascinating, though probably undiscoverable. Perhaps they substituted Southwick for Keisler in the purported original DC judgeship to 9th Cir. deal. Who knows?

I wouldn't celebrate a Southwick confirmation victory just yet. The Senate now goes on a five week recess, which is lots of time for the liberal hate groups like PFAW and AFJ to spread their lies and poison. Remember what effective use they made against Southwick of the one week Memorial Day Recess.

Beware of Senate intermediate votes and actions just before a recess."

Max Baucus just announced on the Senate floor the withdrawal of ALL pending amendments except one by DeMint to the children's health insurance bill. Has McConnell caved in? If so, at what price? Did Reid guarantee him an up-or-down vote on Southwick?

I think we should all email Sen. Feinstein and say thanks for voting for Southwick. While it is easy for us to say that voting for Soutwick was the right thing to do (which it was), the fact of the matter is it would have been easy (even expected) that she would vote against Southwick. I am definitely impressed.

The Dems almost have to confirm him now. Since they are in the majority, if they want to filibuster it paints them as complete obstructionists - surely the average voter realizes the filibuster is a tool for the minority to use.

There is no reason for that sense of the Senate debate now is there? McConnell was using that as a club to force Dems (esp in red states and running for President) to cast some sort of a vote that could be used against them later. He might as well withdraw it now.

I wonder what horse-trading went on, because this looks bad for the Dems. Ralph and Nan will be upset, the Kossacks will give 'em hell next week over it, and now the Dems are going to allow a racist to be confirmed to the CoA. From a political point of view, this appears to be a disaster for them.

Although I often feel like a manic-depressive in regards to Keisler's future confirmation chances, at this point you seem to be much more negative about it than I am. If McConnell can win on Southwick, he certainly can also win on Keisler, especially if there is a Kyl/Feinstein deal to sweeten the pot. I am not saying it is going to be easy, but now Keisler is the only viable "controversial" candidate (Kethledge and Murphy aren't going anywhere until Levin and Stabenow turn in their blue-slips). I see no reason why the Senate Republicans should not then concentrate on Keisler as soon as Southwick is confirmed. It is better to do it now when the Thurmond Rule is not in effect.

The SCHIP Act was just passed 68-31 with nary a word on the McConnell/Specter "Sense of the Senate" amendment. Tomorrow morning there will a vote on Oklahoma district nominee DeGiusti.

Not related to the judicial issue, but interesting to note.

Why doesn't Ben Nelson just switch parties? He's clearly got a conservative view. It seems to me he would be more at home in the Republican caucus.

http://slate.com/id/2122079/

Today was such a weird day. Every persumption we bloviated on since May has gone out the window. NO ONE could have seen this coming, including SJC senators. The best part about this is the irony involving Leahy. He got sick of all the talk from certain GOP senators saying it was his fault that there was no vote in the SJC - to be technical, it was the GOP who were not asking for vote and Arlen who requested to delay when it was on the agenda. Today was suppose to be a stunt to get them to shut up and put this to rest for good. Whoops!

Conceptions debunked today:
1. No Democrat still has a soul. (DiFi, way to do the right thing. I love you and am sorry about that crack I made about your canary yellow pants suit the other day.)
2. Southwick would never get a vote in the SJC.
3. If Southwick did get a vote, he wouldn't survive the SJC vote.
4. McConnell would be just as bad as Frist on judges.
5. The GOP is spineless.
6. There was no possible way there would be an Aug confirmation. (Not guaranteed but there is a chance tomorrow.)
7. The Dems are coordinated on the issue of judges.
8. The drum beat over lower court nominees would never be strong enough to creat change in our favor.

I must confess I was one who advocated throwing him overboard. My bad. We must strike while the iron is hot. Reid and Leahy were totally caught off guard by this. We need to demand a vote tomorrow so they do not get 5 weeks to figure out a new strategy to sink Leslie. The Executive Session in the morning is the perfect time to force a vote. If no cloture, I say keep 'em here till Sept or a vote happens.

This is good news, of course. And surprising, of course. CA residents should think about sending Sen. Feinstein an email expressing your approval of her action.

At least 20 Dems will vote not to end debate on Southwick (probably many more), but I think we're safe. We clearly have at least 50 to vote for him, but we of course need 60 not to filibuster.

We'll hold all 49 Republicans (good God life is better without Chafee)

Ben Nelson is in the bag +1

Feinstein will not vote to filibuster +1

I think Landrieu will not want to rock the boat considering she's up in '08 and the Southwick nomination is something of a southern or regional issue +1

And we should get 8 of the following: Byrd, Webb, Casey, Tester, Conrad, Baucus, Nelson (FL), Bingamen, Carper, McCaskill, Baucus, Pryor, Lincoln, and perhaps Evan Bayh (now that he isn't angling for leftist support in a presidential run? still very iffy). Basically, look at the red state Dems (though basically discount a couple of hacks like Dorgan (largely a hack) and Rockefeller (almost always a hack anymore)). There are also a couple of blue state Dems, like Carper, who have pangs of decency.

This will be a very interesting vote for the four new, allegedly moderate, Dem senators: McCaskill, Tester, Webb, and Casey. I must admit their actions during the immigration debate did suprise me.

I just got ahold of my other staffer friend. He/she tells me that Reid WILL definitely be schedualing a vote. He/she says it's a done deal that Reid will allow sched the vote.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" - Defoe

With Southwick looking good, here's the time to get Keisler approved, too. Offer the donks to put up Kethledge and White to the 6th CC, along with Keisler. A package deal that Levin and Stabenow would take, we get Keisler approved, and don't have to worry about 2 liberals getting onto the 6th in 2009.

I'm really happy with this progress for Leslie Southwick. In regard to the filibuster, I really wonder if the Dems will actually press ahead with it. There's no problem with this nominee. We already know that Feinstein and Nelson support him and the 49 Republicans won't filibuster. I really wonder if they'll pull this filibuster off.

http://bench.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDEzNzk0ZmI1MGI1NGI3MGY1NDdjZjhk...

And they want to invent new words too.

As I predicted, Senate Dems are using the precedent they set 2 weeks ago delaying placement of favorably-voted nominees onto the Executive Calendar as a tool to delay the next CCA nominee voted out of Committee (admittedly, I thought it would be Elrod).

As for your comment that I'm pessimistic on Keisler, I plead guilty. I've been pessimistic all year, with occasional periods of hopefulness, mostly due to your report of the possible deal re the DC to 9th seat transfer. Essentially, I've never been able to comprehend why the majority Dems would confirm such a stellar nominee to the vital D.C. Circuit in Bush's last 2 years.

That said, I fully agree that the Senate GOP, the administration, and support groups should go all out to get Keisler confirmed when the Senate reconvenes in September. The effort must be made and it might succeed. One never knows.

If you want to push a deal through, put a deal in for Steve Matthews.

But if Keisler does not get through, pass a law abolishing the 11th DC seat.

No sooner did Sen. Feinstein vote for Judge Southwick than I'm already hearing calls from the radical left to primary her next time around. From my time working on the hill, particularly on judicial nominations, I know that DiFi is one of about 5 Dems we can count on for fair hearings and fair votes on judicial nominees. Let's make sure she hears all sorts of praise for standing up for Judge Southwick and hopefully she'll stand up for other nominees in the future.