ConfirmThem

than I can [from Hugh Hewitt's site)--

Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Advice for those conservatives with palm-shaped forehead bruises
Posted by: Bill Dyer at 10:00 AM

(Guest Post by Bill Dyer a/k/a Beldar)

Many who are rooting for the McCain-Palin ticket or against the Obama-Biden ticket are frustrated with what they view as an uninspired campaign by Sen. McCain and his advisers. That frustration leaves us susceptible to discouragement — the precise emotion that the Dems' and their mainstream media allies are working very hard at promoting, relying in large measure on political polling whose accuracy is highly suspect.

In particular, right now there's a great temptation for those of us for whom John McCain was not our first choice for the GOP nomination to already start focusing about "How He Lost It." Folks, that's way premature. I've always believed that the Dems would lead in the polls up through election day, and that any GOP nominee would be running as an underdog. Every realistic victory scenario I've ever heard for this year required our team to pass through a trough something like this one — and given the size and urgency of the economic problems, it's actually quite amazing that we're not already totally swamped.

So I'm not particularly pessimistic. Come from behind victories are sweeter, and this one would be very sweet indeed. But even if your worst fears do come true, you'll have four years to polish your coulda-shoulda arguments. And there are better things for you to do right now than just to fume, even if they may be less obvious to you at the moment.

*******
So how can you retain your sanity and regain some peace of mind, if you're finding yourself with a palm-shaped bruise on your forehead about now? To begin with, you have to gather such serenity as you can, and simply accept that most of what you're feeling now has always been inevitable for this peculiar election season.

First, recognize that no campaign is optimal. Some of the things that most frustrate you, as a committed conservative, as you watch the path of the McCain campaign may not be miscues at all in the eyes of independent or cross-over voters. And the Biden-Obama campaign has also continued to make its own share of blunders — of which, again, only some of may be obvious to you, since you're not in that swing voter group. To a larger extent than you probably would think likely, each campaign's mistakes will tend cancel each other out.

Next, keep in mind that John McCain's character traits that are dictating the kind of campaign he's runniing — which includes his stubbornness, his instincts toward compromise, and a sense of propriety and decency (which his opponent and his campaign feign but do not truly share) — are, and have always been, parts of a double-edged sword. John McCain is what he is. And he is uninterested in, and incapable of, remaking himself in any fundamental way to meet an acute campaign need. Indeed, friends and neighbors, he's already demonstrated more innovative thinking — by choosing Sarah Palin as his running mate — than I would permit myself to expect back when he clinched the nomination.

And finally, keep in mind that there are limits to what either campaign could accomplish even if either were to suddenly begin to run an optimal, perfect campaign. Even among those voters who are still undecided, most of them will end up making their final decisions based on the underlying fundamentals of the election — not based on the latest proposals from either campaign over the coming three weeks before election day. Between now and November 4th, Barack Obama is not going to miraculously grow a genuine record of legislative accomplilshment, for example, and neither is he going to transmute himself into anything but a first-term Chicago politician who's still "green behind the ears." Yes, he'll come up with new panders and give-aways — tens of billions of dollars worth of those. But fundamentally, he's not gotten any better, and he's just hoping he can keep his current momentum to manage to coast across the finish line.

I'm not saying that what the campaigns do or don't do over the next three weeks won't matter. But I don't think what they do or don't do will matter nearly as much as those who are part of either campaigns, or who are caught up in daily tracking polls and political minutia, tend to assume they do. We're approaching the end, but the end isn't the only thing that matters — and our side has already avoided the possibility that Obama would have opened a twenty-point national lead by now, which is no small accomplishment.

*******
But adjusting your thinking isn't all you can do. There are active measures you can take to save your forehead from more palm-shaped bruises:

None of us ultimately can be certain of anything more than our own individual votes. I expect to vote early, to eliminate even the slight worry that something might happen before election day — another hurricane, or a car wreck on the way to the polls — that would interfere with my intent. On every occasion in the past when I've taken advantage of early voting opportunities, I've felt more peaceful and satisfied during the remaining days before the election and on election day itself. So: If you're frustrated that your side isn't running the kind of campaign you wish it would run, the best treatment for your frustration may be to go ahead and vote.

But remember, too, that politics is neither a solitary affair, nor a top-down affair. While you can only be certain of your own vote, that does not mean that you lack any ability to influence any others. With the peace of mind that comes from knowing that your own vote is cast, perhaps you will find renewed energy and creativity. Find some way, big or small, to actually campaign for your side! You might decide to participate in some formal way, by volunteering, for example, to make phone calls. Or you might make a mental list of people you know whose votes you suspect may still be undetermined or subject to reconsideration. And then you can set about deciding how best to persuade them to your point of view.

You and I can't likely change what the McCain campaign is doing at this point. But you and I do have our own limited spheres of influence. Win or lose, I'll be happier both now and for the four years after election day if I've done all I can that's within my own power.

— Beldar

...Remember how she said that FDR went on TV after the Crash in '29 to speak to the Nation? Oh wait, that was Biden too. Sorry.

STEVENS, J., filed a dissenting opinion, in which SCALIA, J., joined.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/163896/page/1

"According to his own Web site, Obama supports the federal Freedom of Choice Act [FOCA], which would eliminate all state and federal regulation of abortion (such as informed consent and **parental notification** in the case of minors seeking an abortion); these regulations have demonstrably reduced the absolute number of abortions in the jurisdictions in which they are in effect. FOCA would also eliminate, by federal statute, state laws providing "conscience clause" protection for pro-life doctors who decline to provide abortions. Obama (along with the Democratic Party platform) supports federal funding for abortion, opposes the Hyde amendment (which restricts the use of taxpayer monies for abortion) and has pledged to repeal the "Mexico City policy" (initiated by Ronald Reagan and reinstated by George W. Bush, which bans federal foreign-aid funding for organizations that perform and promote abortion as a means of family planning). According to the pro-choice Web site RHRealityCheck.org, Obama also opposes continued federal funding for crisis pregnancy centers."

I seem to recall Obama clearly stating during a debate that he supported parental notification. Oops.

Any actuaries here know the odds of both Scalia & Kennedy making it another four years?

STEVENS, J., filed a dissenting opinion, in which SCALIA, J., joined.

Scalia and Kennedy will do just fine over the next 4 years. I'm a bit concerned re Scalia's smoking, but he seems to remain sturdy just to spite the libs!

Scalia will go out like Douglas before retiring under a Dem, esp. Obama. Kennedy will go out like Douglas regardless (after all, what would we do without him?), unless he can somehow be convinced he's doing the noble thing by retiring under a Repub POTUS.

I suggested awhile back that the WH should've made a serious attempt to get him offered the UN SecGen job. I think they should've listened to me.

STEVENS, J., filed a dissenting opinion, in which SCALIA, J., joined.

Give the Democrats their 4 years and pray that Ginsberg/Souter value their jobs enough not to quit in the first 3.

Obama is no FDR; he is not capable of handling the storm that is about to come.

And who knows. Carter did not get any picks. We might get lucky.

On the 5th Circuit, Judge Rhesa Barksdale will take senior status on 8/8/09. Judge Barksdale was a Bush nominee confirmed in 1990. The seat appears to "belong" to Mississippi. Hopefully Roger Wicker will hold onto his senate seat, maintaining two GOP senators from the state and the associated influence over Circuit Court nominees. The 5th Circuit is solidly conservative, but several of the judges appointed by GOP Presidents are getting on in years.

On the 6th Circuit, Judge Martha Daughtrey will take senior status on 1/1/09. Judge Daughtrey was a Clinton nominee confirmed in 1993. The seat appears to "belong" to Tennessee. Even if Obama is making the selection, I would hope that the two GOP senators from TN would hold out for a decent nominee. The 6th Circuit is currently closely divided and quite contentious, particularly on issues such as the death penalty.

Although he certainly is old enough to retire (he was born in 1944), as a Bush 41 nominee, Barksdale is choosing the wrong time to leave the bench. If he wanted to retire, he should've done it several years ago when he was first eligible. The Dems are bound and determined to fill any Mississippi seat with an African-American. That was one of the main reasons they gave for blocking Pickering, Wallace and Southwick. With Obama as president, it doesn't matter if Mississippi has two Republican senators. The pressure will even greater to put in an African-American. Anyone know of a conservative black Democrat in Mississippi? I doubt it. You can bet that Obama will insist upon a radical liberal to balance the "ultra-conservative" Fifth Circuit. As long as the Republicans maintain the right numbers in the Senate, this situation is headed toward another huge confirmation battle.

As a Clinton nominee, Daughtrey's retirement is a little less dire. Because Tennessee had two Democrat senators at the time of her nomination, Daughtrey, a liberal judicial activist, was easily processed throught the Senate. This time, however, Tennessee has two Republican senators. As a consequence, the next nominee, though a Democrat, is likely to be more moderate than Daughtrey.

Barksdale is not retiring until the fall of 2009. That implies to me that he is well aware that he knows a confirmation battle is certain over his seat. He is on purpose leaving the Senate time enough to confirm a replacement nominee if the one Obama initially nominates is blocked.

Actually, BoBo, my understanding is that Barksdale actually is retiring at the absolute first possible opportunity available to him. That is, he could not have taken senior status prior to the day he's taking it. Barksdale was born on 8/8/1944, and he's taking senior status on 8/8/2009, at his 65th birthday. The Rule of 80 means that federal COA judges can't take senior status until they turn 65, and then their age plus the number of years served (in Barksdale's case, it'll be 19 years next summer) must add up to at least 80 for them to be eligible for senior status (which itself is a pretty sweet deal--full salary plus reduced workload).

Also, it's a technicality, but Barksdale actually is taking senior status in August 2009, and not in the fall of 2009.

If Obama wins, both seats surely will involve confirmation fights. In fact, *every* COA seat in a state where there's at least one GOP senator will involve a confirmation battle. Count on it.

King (born 1938) is one of the few remaining Carter relics, but there are 3 other Bush 41/Reaga nominees born in the 30s, as well as Barksdale. That's 5 nominations in his first term.

The same is true with the 11th circuit: Obama could easily get 5 nominations there, too.

On the other hand, the 6th might be more conservative 4 years from now; Bush 43 has appointed half the circuit, there's only another Carter relic and a couple Clinton nominees over 65 there. The 8th and 10th circuits are also pretty well hedged against Obama's minions.

Between the 4 open seats and any retirement of someone like Wilkinson, there's major problems there.

You are correct. In a rush to finish another task, I made some hurried mental calculations which incorrectly led me to believe that Barksdale was 68 and not 64. I guess it's best not to do too many things at once. LOL!

I stand my previous analysis, though, that a huge confirmation battle is likely to occur over his replacement. If McCain wins, a white conservative or moderate is likely to be chosen. The Dems, with likely 55 senators, will not allow such a nominee to be confirmed. They will demand an African-American. If Obama wins, not only will the Senate Dems demand an African-American, but that African-American will almost invariably need be liberal to suit their tastes. Hopefully, Senate Republicans will not allow such a nominee to be confirmed if Mississippi has two Republican senators.

an open thread?