My Take on Specter vs. Leahy

By Quin Posted in Comments (15) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Over at the Examiner (here) , I try to put into perspective Sen. Specter's admirable efforts to prod Sen. Leahy to confirm more judges. It's nothing that readers of this site haven't heard before, but because it organizes the subject into what I hope is a compelling argument, I urge anybody who likes it to try to spread it widely via links, etc.

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20080314/a_judges14.art.htm

"'[Bush] made significant strides in cementing the modern court-packing legacy begun by Ronald Reagan,' says Nan Aron of the liberal Alliance for Justice. 'So many circuits, whose decisions affect tens of thousands of people, now have Republican-appointed majorities.' Aron termed Bush appointees, as a group, 'hostile to individual rights.'"

Nan suspiciously neglects to inform the reader that most of Bush's gains in the federal judiciary will be erased if a Dem president is elected in November. With a Dem-controlled Congress, Hillary or Obama can easily reorient the circuit courts with the likely creation of 15 new COA positions.

Reply To ThisUser Info#1 — Fri, 2008-03-14 13:25

http://bench.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWM0MWU0OTlmYzViNjkxZGNjY2I3ZjMz...

"President Bush has nominated Virginia Supreme Court Justice G. Steven Agee to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit. According to the AP, Agee has the support of both Virginia Senators, thus eliminating one potential excuse Senator Leahy could have for failing to move on his nomination. That said, I still do not expect Agee (or many of the other ten pending appellate nominees) to get confirmed before January 2009."

My, and I thought I was pessimistic!

I still believe Haynes, Pratter and Agee will get confirmed this year. Why? There are two reasons:

1) The Dems will want to appear conciliatory until July comes and Leahy can start vigorously enforcing the Thurmond Rule with a straight face. At the previously noted rate of one COA confirmations per every two months set last year, that means 3 confirmations before the August recess.

2) The Dems would have a hard time during any session of Congress not confirming such noncontroversial nominees as Catharina Haynes and Agee without appearing to be utterly partisan and giving the Republicans a potentially huge election issue. I think Pratter will get through simply by the sheer force of Arlen Specter's will. There is no other way for his protegee Carolyn Short to get her district judgeship without a Pratter confirmation first.

I do, however, agree with Adler that it looks like Keisler, Matthews, and all the COA nominees controlled by Dem senators (Kethledge, Murphy, Stone, Rosenstein and Smith)look to be dead. The only remaining possibility of confirmation rests with Robert Conrad, but Burr and Dole are going to have to work very hard to get him confirmed. If they lollygag around like they did with Boyle, Conrad too will remain blocked.

Reply To ThisUser Info#2 — Fri, 2008-03-14 13:47

It's now official: What I was warning about at the beginning of the month has now come to pass, but even those predictions weren't pessimistic enough:

1. No (0) judicial confirmations this month.

2. Senate Dems have gotten through March without holding any judicial nominee hearing whatsoever, not even a District nominee-only one. The District nominee confirmation slowdown is now in full swing.

3. Haynes' Committee vote has been pushed off until April. Actually, Leahy & Co. went one step further than that. By cancelling this week's scheduled vote altogether, the Dems have kept their one-week delay in reserve, and can now delay Haynes' vote until at least April 10th and thus pushing Pratter's hearing back as well.

Must admit that last twist fooled me; can't believe I didn't think of it. Another example of the formula I advanced last year: Take your most pessimistic scenario and then take it one step further, and that will be the probable result. I forgot to take this process the necessary "one step further". Leahy, Schumer & Co. are clever but rather predictable if you really think it through. But you have to keep thinking outside the box.

Reply To ThisUser Info#3 — Fri, 2008-03-14 13:49

http://swvalaw.blogspot.com/2008/03/its-agee.html

"Despite the increasing proximity to lame duck status for President Bush and his nominees, the Senate ought to move ahead with Agee's nomination, particularly since it will probably give Senator Webb's buddy, Governor Kaine, a chance to appoint another Democrat to the Virginia Supreme Court.

The Richmond paper has this story, noting that Webb and Warner both gave statements of approval. BLT has this post. Confirm Them has this post, with a few comments, including one that says: "Now nominate Lemons too, George. Cripes almighty. Unreal. Of course, he finally caves to the list when it'll do no good. As I've said many times before, Nixon, Truman & Harding just have to be shaking their heads that they can't play poker with this Administration.""

Reply To ThisUser Info#4 — Fri, 2008-03-14 13:54
Question for Quin by Whacker77

Not to change the subject, but what are you hearing about our favorite VP nominee, Chris Cox. Are people with McCain's ear actively promoting him, or is Chris Cox the new Fred Thompson of the conservative blogosphere?

Reply To ThisUser Info#5 — Fri, 2008-03-14 15:33
BoBo by BillM

LOLZ!!!!! :D

Webb's just raking in a huge pot. He can blame Leahy for delaying Agee, and Bush for waiting too long to nominate him. Then even if McCain wins, he can tear up the current list and say, "It was out there for years and Republicans apparently had problems with Agee & Lemons (the old Keisler trick), so Sen.(MARK) Warner & I will work to find more highly qualified...etc..."

He made a big gamble by putting Agee & Lemons on there by figuring Bush wouldn't nominate them (in time) just on principle, and he hit a royal flush. The VA seats will be filled by mush or stay vacant if McCain wins, or by ultra-libs if Obama wins. The 4th is gone.

Bush may have been trying a cynical-stupid play, hoping VA voters might be swung over "obstructing judges", but he's way out of his league in confirmation wars, IMO. I think Webb & MWarner and some lib editorial writers in VA will blow that argument out of the water.

And John Warner & even Macaca have to be disgusted by the WH here.

STEVENS, J., filed a dissenting opinion, in which SCALIA, J., joined.

Reply To ThisUser Info#6 — Fri, 2008-03-14 15:53
Sort of by Quin

Whacker, you have been a trooper in pushing Cox. I appreciate it! Cox's name continues to pop up in multiple places, and I know that reporters traveling with McCain have been talking him up... and I know that people on the periphery of the McCain camp are at least somewhat favorably disposed to the idea. But I just don't know what the real insiders with McCain think. I do know that the reader response (private emails to me) to Cox has been very very strong, and I personally have been on three national TV news shows and about six radio shows talking about the choice, and callers (and hosts) seem intrigued. So keep on mentioning him, and the McCain people might just recognize a groundswell!
Quin Hillyer

Reply To ThisUser Info#7 — Fri, 2008-03-14 16:36

Courtesy of How Appealing,

http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1205472241150640.xml...

"Luck doesn't come any worse than this. First you get severely injured by some negligent corporation, and then your jury award winds up before Priscilla Owen of the federal appeals court.

That's when you know the Fates have it in for you."

Reply To ThisUser Info#8 — Fri, 2008-03-14 19:02
Quin by Whacker77

I will continue to push Chris Cox as best I can, but I know I'm just one guy on the internet. He makes sense for a lot of reasons, but he might not have the desired profile considering the other side will run a woman or black man. For me, winning is most important, so if that means Crist, I can get with that. I want to keep the Supreme Court in Republican hands. If he doesn't pick Cox and still wins, McCain can put Cox on SCOTUS.

Reply To ThisUser Info#9 — Fri, 2008-03-14 19:04

http://saveourcourts.civilrights.org/remote-page.jsp?itemID=33814575

"Civil rights groups have been growing increasingly concerned with President Bush's nominees to federal courts and are urging the Senate to stop confirming these controversial judges.

"The Senate has failed to do its job, and because of this, the civil rights of Americans have suffered," said Wade Henderson, president and CEO of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights (LCCR).

Judges Gene Pratter and Richard Honaker, nominated to the Third Circuit Court of Appeals and the Wyoming District Court, respectively, are the latest in a long line of controversial nominees by the Bush Administration.

Civil rights groups are concerned about Judge Pratter's seemingly dismissive and even hostile attitude to the rights of the disabled and victims of employment discrimination. They are similarly concerned about Judge Honaker, whose writings indicate that as a judge he would likely value his own moral and religious views over the precedents of our federal courts."

Reply To ThisUser Info#10 — Fri, 2008-03-14 19:22

http://www.committeeforjustice.org/blog/2008/03/new-4th-circuit-nominee-...

"We’re pleased to see that there’s a new nominee to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit. Yesterday, President Bush named G. Steven Agee to a Virginia seat on the court. Elected in 2003 to the Virginia Supreme Court by a bipartisan voice vote in the state legislature, Agee has the support of both Virginia senators – including Democrat Jim Webb – behind his 4th Circuit nomination.

That support is expected to facilitate his confirmation. Skeptics will counter that Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy has turned the slow walk (often no walk) of judicial nominees into a fine art since the Democrats regained control of the Senate. But given that the support of home state senators – in this case, bipartisan support – is the touchstone of Leahy’s confirmation test, it’s hard to fathom how he could justify doing anything other than expeditiously processing Agee’s nomination."

Reply To ThisUser Info#11 — Fri, 2008-03-14 19:29
Robert Novak by Whacker77

He mentioned that conservatives in the House are pushing Chris Cox as McCain's VP. House members say he has the staure in the conservative movement that Rob Portman, the choice of Bushies, doesn't.

Reply To ThisUser Info#12 — Sat, 2008-03-15 10:25
Whacker77 by Matthew Friendly

That's great news, as Cox is far and away my favorite and the most qualified. Heck, he should be running for prez.

That being said, Portman is impressive and would be an excellent VP.

Reply To ThisUser Info#13 — Sat, 2008-03-15 11:11
Rob Portman, as a Bush by Whacker77

Rob Portman, as a Bush cabinet member, could be tied more easily to Bush than Cox. Cox can claim some independence from Bush since he works at the SEC and not directly for Bush. If McCain doesn't want to be tied directly to Bush, he may not want to select Portman. Just my view. I still say Crist gets it.

Reply To ThisUser Info#14 — Sat, 2008-03-15 13:55
Crist by BillM

No way to put this delicately; there's been a lot of chatter for a long time in Florida that Crist has had several gay affairs, tho no one of course is willing to go anywhere near being on the record about it. He has no kids and was divorced at age 24 after about a year of marriage.

None of this proves anything about his fitness for the VPOTUSy (being gay is no DQ in my book, but I hate the "secret second life guys" like Foley, Craig & Spitzer), and McCain obviously likes him a great deal. But McCain's VP will be under a huge microscope due to his age & health, as McCain himself has said.

If Crist is the pick, it's an issue that will have to be dealt with, and being gay IS a DQ for a percentage of conservatives, tho it could swing an equal number of libertarians & independents.

I prefer Sanford or Cox, but McCain will obviously pick who he wants and tell anyone who doesn't like it to take a hike.

STEVENS, J., filed a dissenting opinion, in which SCALIA, J., joined.

Reply To ThisUser Info#15 — Sun, 2008-03-16 02:38

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