ConfirmThem

http://www.firedoglake.com/2007/10/22/to-the-phones/

"Bottom line at the moment? Despite the likely requirement for a 60 vote margin (which I have now confirmed with three different sources on the Hill), the fact that this vote is coming at the behest of Trent Lott — and that I cannot track down anyone with a line on a whip count — makes me mighty unhappy about how this is rushing toward a vote tomorrow."

"Diane Feinstein’s office responded to my email, and said that Feinstein will NOT vote in favor of Southwick."

"But will she vote against cloture?"

"Of course she’ll vote for cloture! Then she’ll vote against confirmation in a losing effort. She will justify all this by stating the nominee was entitled to an up or down vote, and that she really believed he would not be conrirmed."

"From Feinstein’s staffer:

“I don’t know whether the Senator will vote for cloture or not, sir. She hasn’t released a statement.”

“So you don’t know.”

“Yes, sir. She hasn’t released a statement to that effect.”"

"So if they are saying that she will vote against Southwick, but not saying how she will vote on cloture, safe money says…"

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/gay-groups-battling-for-broader-bill...

"Meanwhile, in the Senate, liberal and conservative grassroots groups this week are battling again over judges, specifically President Bush’s nomination of Judge Leslie Southwick to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.

Curt Levey, executive director for the Committee for Justice, said his group, in conjunction with other conservative groups with broad memberships, is targeting six states in support of Southwick’s nomination: Louisiana, Virginia, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota and Pennsylvania.

Levey noted Southwick’s “well qualified” rating from the American Bar Association and the fact that he had served in Iraq as part of a Mississippi National Guard unit as among the positive testaments to Southwick’s qualifications and character.

But liberal groups and civil rights organization have urged Democrats to oppose Southwick. Groups like People for the American Way have said Southwick’s judicial record demonstrates a lack of support for social justice programs.

“One of the reasons Democrats were elected was that America didn’t want to see judges like this placed on the federal judiciary,” said Judith Schaeffer, legal director for People for the American Way.

The vote could come as early as Wednesday, although Levey said there was a possibility that could slip.

“We need to have every Republican senator there, and that may not happen this week,” he said."

Sounds to me that Curt thinks that Southwick will be indefinitely filibustered.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Judge Southwick's nomination this week. There has not been a successful perpetual filibuster of a judicial nominee since before the Gang of 14 deal.

Let's hope that all responsible Senators --- Democrats and Republicans alike --- will realize that there truly are no "extraordinary circumstances" surrounding the Southwick nomination. No such circumstances resulted in a perpetual filibuster of a judicial nomination at any time during the eighteenth, nineteenth, or twentieth centuries, and such circumstances certainly don't exist now.

<< Sounds to me that Curt thinks that Southwick will be indefinitely filibustered. >>

No, not at all. It's just that McCain is campaigning all week and Warner is not yet back in the Senate full-time.

this is what this site is all about: Confirm Them! Confirm the eminently qualified Southwick!

Let's hope that all responsible Senators --- Democrats and Republicans alike --- will realize that there truly are no "extraordinary circumstances" surrounding the Southwick nomination.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1007/6492.html

"The Senate is scheduled to begin debating the nomination Tuesday. Democrats could filibuster, which means Republicans must line up at least 60 votes to break it. And that would require 11 Democrats to break with their party.

Seven Democratic members of the Gang of 14, a bipartisan Senate group that agreed in 2005 to avoid filibustering judicial nominees for the duration of the last Congress, remain in office.

But at least one of them, Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), said last week that he is undecided on Southwick."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,304243,00.html

"Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi, who has led the fight for this nominee, said fellow Mississippian and Minority Whip Trent Lott is actively working the vote, a task for which Lott is legendary.

"We're hopeful, but you never know how people are going to vote until they vote," he said.

Cochran said a roll call was being taken to determine when they could have all Republicans in their seats, though Sen. John McCain is proving tough to nail down. One senior GOP leadership aide predicted to FOX News that the nominee would get the necessary 60 votes to prevent a filibuster and enable confirmation.

At this juncture, Sens. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., and Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., after meeting with the nominee, said they will support Southwick. A handful of Democratic moderates are known to be supportive as well, although the number is unclear. Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., would not reveal how he would vote, but said, "It's going to be a very close vote, very close."

Nelson told FOX News he will convene a group of interested fellow senators Tuesday morning to discuss the nomination. The gathering has the air of the old "Gang of 14," which averted a Senate floor implosion in 2005 with a delicate compromise that simply stated that all nominees would get an up or down vote unless "extraordinary circumstances" moved members to an objection.

The phrase was left to each member to define. McCain, currently a presidential candidate, was a member of the group, but Nelson said he's been unable to reach McCain, who keeps a busy campaign schedule these days. The make-up of the group will likely be "at least 11 Democrats and eight or nine Republicans," said Nelson, enough to stave off a filibuster.

Nelson said the guidelines for nominees should remain the same but the players in his group have changed. He would not name who, in addition to former "Gang" members, was expected to attend."

its nice to know there's one national Democrat who actually deserves their seat.

It would be interesting to see what this means going forward with Judicial Nominations. If they can find 20 Senators that won't filibuster and will agree to that for the long term, it could essentially be a back door rule for a switch to majority voting for judges in the Senate.

NOW is a good time to make that when we don't know who the next President will be so that there will be a clearer path going forward. Yes, there are still committee votes, but there will always be those.

Here's hoping they come to an agreement just in time for Souter to retire from SCOTUS :-)

Oz

www.first-cut-politics.blospot.com

if Nelson could find 10 other Dems who could live without PFAW/AfJ/etc. endorsement.

to vote for cloture and then vote against confirmation. Then they could claim they're not being obstructionist by filibustering from the majority. But that only works if all 50 Dems vote against confirmation, and I doubt Nelson would go along.

I hope this redeems him a bit in our eyes.

http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/MarioDiaz/2007/10/23/senator_feinstei...

"Obstructionist senators should learn something from Sen. Feinstein and stop making a mockery of the Constitution. “We the people” want fairness in the judicial confirmation process. We will remember those senators who are more concern with appeasing special interest groups than with doing the honorable and right thing. No longer should they get away with hiding behind a “no” vote to cover their political games."

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news...

“The Senate has a constitutional responsibility to give Judge Southwick an up-or-down vote,” said Jay Sekulow, Chief Counsel of the ACLJ. “At the end of the day, we’re confident the Senate will confirm Judge Southwick who has a distinguished legal and military career. Judge Southwick – who received the ABA’s highest rating of ‘well qualified’ – has a judicial philosophy that will serve the 5th Circuit well. He’s dedicated to upholding the constitution and the rule of law. Senate leadership must stop playing politics and let this nomination come up for a vote by the full Senate. An up-or-down vote is long overdue. The Senate must put the nomination to a vote and confirm Judge Southwick so he can begin serving our country in this critical capacity.”

This is further proof that "Democrats" are not democratic, as they want unelected judges to decide all of our policy, under the guise of the constitution, and, of course, only in one direction. This is why they oppose neutral judges like Southwick, who are dedicated to applying the actual written law, and who will not subvert the will of the people without specific const basis. What the left really fears is that the people, and their elected legislators, actually get to decide public policy, which is why they insist only on judges who will apply their policy, over that of the people, under the guise of the const, in striking down laws that do not meet with their preferences.(I.e,.- laws they oppose like those against gay marriage, abortion,child porn, sodomy etc., etc.) This is the authoritarian part of the leftist movement on full display.

I am interested to get your take on Southwick's chance right now after reading all of those articles and talking to your Senate staff friends. Perhaps a percent chance Southwick is confirmed this week.

I spoke to a staffer for one Republican Senator today. He says that they think they have the votes for cloture. We'll see what actually happens.

Sounds like he's going to be confirmed, just a question of when.

As for filibustering, how can the majority filibuster? Isn't it by definition a minority procedure?

http://public.cq.com/docs/cqm/cqmidday110-000002611130.html

"Nelson met with three other senators Tuesday morning in his Capitol Hill office —Minority Whip Trent Lott, R-Miss., and Democrats Robert C. Byrd of West Virginia and Ken Salazar of Colorado.

Lott said, “You can never have an en bloc quid pro quo, but you find ways to work together.”

Salazar said he was still undecided about whether to vote to limit debate on the nomination, which needs at least 60 supporters to proceed.

Nelson said he was talking with several other senators in a “rolling meeting” and was hopeful enough Democrats will back Southwick to avoid a filibuster.

Mark Pryor, D-Ark., a member of the original Gang of 14, said he will vote for cloture and is leaning toward voting for Southwick’s confirmation. “My sense is right now that it’s close but he probably has the votes to survive cloture” Pryor said."

My assumption is that Southwick will be confirmed by the slimmest of margins. One or two defections from those who have pledged to invoke cloture may radically change the picture. Oddly, I do not think there is as much uproar by the liberal special interest groups this time around as compared to when his committee vote came up.

Southwick confirmation vibes appear positive. Presumably the requisite deals have been made. Lets's hope that the GOP Senators didn't give away too much in return: such as 1,000,000 new Amnesty citizens (Democrat voters) or releasing 300 terrorist prisoners (Democrat allies).

As I said, seems good. But if the GOP has conceded something close to the above, then I also want Kiesler and Matthews and/or Getchell in return.

The cloture vote on Southwick is tomorrow at 11am.

If cloture is invoked, there will be an up-or-down vote immediately after the cloture vote.

NRO Corner reports that McCain is cancelling campaign appearances in New Hampshire to be in Washington for the Southwick vote(s):

Sen. John McCain's campaign has just sent out this:

ARLINGTON, VA — U.S. Senator John McCain's presidential campaign today announced that John McCain has cancelled his New Hampshire events scheduled for tomorrow, October 24th, to return to Washington to vote on the nomination of Judge Leslie Southwick to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit. Senator Warren Rudman will appear as a surrogate for McCain at the Greater Salem and Greater Derry-Londonderry Chamber of Commerce breakfast in Derry tomorrow morning.

"I spoke to a staffer for one Republican Senator today."

I hope you said hello to Insider from all of us. :D

BoBo, this may be flying under the radar of the kossacks. Didn't see anything over there just now. They seem distracted by that Glenn Beck idiocy, plus they consider themselves primary "big picture"; SCHIP, FISA, etc.

Man, I can't WAIT to see their reaction if Southwick slips thru tomorrow. Lord only knows what the quid pro quo is, prolly something on SCHIP, but so what, the veto's a total loser at the polls anyhoo.

I'm gonna have a couple frosty ol' mugs for the judge tomorrow night!

If the cloture vote fails tomorrow, we have a new standard for approving judges. We will not be able to let Democrat judges through with 51 votes if they are going to require 60 votes for ours. We have to have one standard and if this cloture vote tomorrow fails then the standard will be 60 votes forever.

Senators are making statements now on the Senate floor about Southwick. While saying that they will vote against his nomination, it seems to me that many Dem senators are implicitly also saying that they will vote for cloture. Feinstein has gone one step further. She says she will not only vote for cloture, she will also vote for Southwick's final confirmation.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/republicans-target-red-state-dems-on...

"Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota, which President Bush carried with 64 percent of the vote in 2004, said he was planning to support Southwick’s bid for a seat on the New Orleans-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit.

“I am satisfied that he is a person of good will, and he is not somebody that would discriminate against people,” Conrad said."

The quid pro quo is Kethledge, Murphy and Kiesler.

To the contention that the standard is 60 votes "if cloture fails," I say the standard is 60 votes (or whatever the Senate sets for cloture, it used to be 67) if there is a requirement to submit to (and get past) a cloture vote at all.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/10/23/mccain_obama_adjus...

"Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama are cutting short their campaign trips to New Hampshire on Wednesday to accommodate votes scheduled in Washington."

I say McCain votes to invoke cloture, and Obama does not. Does this surprise anyone? We all know that the liberal elite (Reid, Leahy, Kennedy, Kerry, Boxer, Biden, Feingold, Durbin, Schumer, Clinton and Dodd) will vote against cloture.

I disagree about Keisler. I suspect that any exchanges will be based not upon Keisler but will instead be based upon Republicans pledging to help over-ride some presidential vetos.

I'm quite sure that Kethledge, Murphy, Stone and Getchell were NOT part of any deal. The Dems are too smart for that. They already know that those four are procedurally dead due to the blue-slip policy.

The "oddity" of Demo-kook silence about Southwick is likely that a quid pro quo deal has been made. Let's just hope it's just more pork for the Democrat pigs, not something really pernicious.

The silence on the lunatic left is interesting. Perhaps they're distracted by other matters closer to their subhuman hearts. At the moment, and I'm not kidding--this is actually true, Soros Air America and some fringe left blogs are busy blaming the California wildfires on, you guessed it... Bush, Cheney and Blackwater! Yes, this is actually happening as we speak. You see, Bush and Cheney have purportedly hired Blackwater arsonists to burn down Southern California so they can buy up massive property tracts at cheap prices and form a "fascist army" at the border. This makes the inevitable Al Gore hyena explanation that Global Warming is to blame seem almost rational.

Let's hope the idiots stay distracted. Maybe more judges can go through after all. These people are insane.

http://michellemalkin.com/2007/10/23/shamnesty-alert-dems-prepare-to-ram...

Or is it just a coincidence that DREAM and Southwick cloture votes will be held the same day?

Roll call says the quid pro quo is smoothing the way for legislation.

My airing of Kethledge, Murphy and Keisler's names was a bit tongue in cheek. I agree with Bobo, those nominations were dead without any trading required. Not that I like that, in fact, I think it's "unethical" of the Senate to stonewall the nominations rather than act on them.

The relevant question here is: What legislation? Given the speed with which the Democrat opposition to Southwick is melting away, I worry that it's not just pork, but something really really bad. Amnesty, anyone?

Southwick Cloture vote is underway. Dirty Harry Reid gave final speech in debate: Leahy must have lent him his Clinton-nominees-were-robbed stemwinder, but of course Harry didn't deliver it as well, sort of mangled it. Played the race card of course, even invoking Jena. Sounded subdued, presumably a pro forma performance.

Could someone please keep us updated on the final count of the cloture and final votes on Southwick.

If I counted corrected, there are now at least 12 democrats in favor of cloture, if every Republican is present and votes, it should be fine:

Byrd (D-WV)
Carper (D-DE)
Conrad (D-ND)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Inouye (D-HI)
Johnson (D-SD)
Lieberman (ID-CT)
Lincoln (D-AR)
Nelson (D-NE)
Pryor (D-AR)
Salazar (D-CO)

______________________________________
"Our job is to bash the president"
Newsweek's Evan Thomas, on the role of the MSM

Now the up-or-down vote.

Leslie Southwick confirmed by Senate: 59-38.

On the cloture vote there were 62 ayes. All 49 Republicans and 13 Democratic Senators:
Akaka (D-HI)
Byrd (D-WV)
Carper (D-DE)
Conrad (D-ND)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Inouye (D-HI)
Johnson (D-SD)
Lieberman (ID-CT)
Lincoln (D-AR)
Nelson (D-NE)
Pryor (D-AR)
Salazar (D-CO)

3 Democratic senators did not vote (Boxer, Dodd and Kennedy)

On confirmation Senators:
Carper (D-DE)
Inouye (D-HI)
Salazar (D-CO)
voted against Southwick, all others voted the same as on the cloture vote.

Champagne Day! The "Pickering seat" has finally been filled. After 6 1/2 years of trying to get a nominee confirmed, since May 25th, 2001! There were many times I thought this day would never come. Hopefully, 5th Circuit Judge Edith Jones is standing by to swear in Leslie Southwick ASAP.

Now anything seems possible. Maybe even 1 or 2 4th Circuit confirmations. Wait, now for sure I'm getting too giddy and irrational.

And now Reid & Co. are moving right on to the 'I DREAM of Amnesty' bill. I hope this isn't the dreaded quid pro quo.

If Federer can win in Basel now, this will truly be a great week.

The Senate confirmed another judge that actually believes in interpreting and applying the law as it is actually written, and not some fanciful conception of their own imagination!!