ConfirmThem

I'm convinced Mccain is going to win this. The polls are oversampling Dems by 6-14 points! Even the polls showing a dead heat are oversampling Dems by 3-4 points. Turnout in 2004 was even Dem/Rep, and even in 2006 it was only +3 Dem, but that wasn't a Pres. election.

It's going to be a squeaker, but i'm convinced Mccain will win. And I simply can not wait to see Olberman and Mathews go ape over the election.

Will the liberals on the SC be able to hold out 4 more years? I'm sure they'll try.

Jeffrey Rosen's current New Republic piece on judges (and liberals' fears of a judicial apocalypse under McCain) that McCain might appoint is typically long on speculation about rulings but short on actual names. He mentions only Janice Rogers Brown, Edith Jones, Harvie Wilkinson and Michael McConnell -- completely ignoring the fact that by next summer, three of those four will be over 60, and Wilkinson will be almost 65! Rosen picked the names that were more likely *last* time around and omitted the more likely names, actuarial-wise, in a McCain presidency like Diane Sykes, Neil Gorsuch, Karen Williams, Maureen Mahoney, Debra Livingston, Jennifer Elrod, Steven Colloton, Jeff Sutton, Raymond Kethledge, Paul Clement, Catharina Haynes, or anyone else whom McCain might hire and credential.

Interesting quote, too, from Ed Whelan:

"With the specific exception of Roe, we're more interested in preventing future liberal incursions than in undoing past ones, much less in achieving a conservative counterrevolution," says Ed Whelan of the Ethics and Public Policy Center. "If you could give me a grand deal that was binding where the Court would overturn Roe and not do all the bad things we fear from an Obama Court--including creating rights to gay marriage and cloning, striking down the death penalty, and stripping 'under God' from the Pledge of Allegiance--I would happily give up all the supposed gains that the left might fear from a conservative Court."

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=87ca9449-7b32-48fa-bccb-761545...

I hope you are right True Conservative, but I am really dreading the worse. I have already cast my ballot so I am free Election Day to do what I can to help McCain win. But I think the Democrats have simply outworked us this time. And needless to say, the bias in the media is almost impossible to overcome. My father, a true conservative, did not see the bias in the media even toward Obama until I clearly pointed it out to him. The media has had a love affair with Obama since Day 1. I actually wonder how they will treat him once he gets, I fear, elected. If I thought there were not going to be two (and maybe even three) vacancies on the SC during the next four years, the thought of an Obama presidency would not send shivers up my back. I do wonder just how significant Acorn's registering of fake Democrats has been, and if it is significant, then I see your logic and reasoning True Conservative.

Courtesy of Bench Memos,

http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2008/1021_courts_wheeler.aspx

"A President Obama, by contrast, would reduce the proportion of Republican appointees from 56% to 42% and increase the proportion of Democratic appointees to 58%."

"Under Obama, courts with solid Democratic majorities would go from none to four; those with slight Democratic appointee majorities would go from one to four. Courts with slight Republican appointee majorities would drop from four to two, and those with solid Republican appointee majorities would drop from six to one."

http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1202425525272

"The balance of appointments could put solid Democratic majorities under Obama on the 2nd, the 3rd and the notoriously conservative 4th Circuit, which currently has four vacancies. It would add to the existing Democratic-appointed majorities in the liberal 9th Circuit.

Obama appointees would tip another four courts, the 1st, 7th, 11th and D.C. circuits to slight Democratic-majority appointments.

"I think this shows in striking form what it means for the courts of appeals, depending on who is elected," said Carl Tobias, law professor at the University of Richmond School of Law, who tracks judicial appointments.

"For the 4th Circuit [an Obama victory] would be a substantial change, because it is the most reliably conservative court in the nation," he said.

In the 2nd Circuit, it will be important because the New York-based court hears so many of the nation's most significant business cases, Tobias said."

http://bench.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTIyNWZjMGQwYjMyMGNjZjkxOGZmYTE4...

"How could a President Obama alter the composition of the federal courts? According to this National Law Journal story reporting on a new Brookings Institution study, quite a bit."

Take the DC circuit for example:

It's currently 6-3 GOP with 2 vacancies.

Now, assuming the 11th seat isn't dissolved by the new judges bill (and that a new judges bill passes in the first place), the oldest 2 judges on the DC circuit are 2 clinton appointments. Sentelle is Chief Judge and probably not going anywhere.

Obama would have to fill the 2 vacant seats, the 2 Clinton seats, and a GOP seat to flip 6-3 over to 5-6. Seems like a tall order.

And take the 6th circuit:

There's the vacant Daughtrey seat, filled with someone probably more conservative than she is, and probably Boyce Martin (Carter relic, Grutter case) is replaced with someone more conservative than he is. Sure, it could end up even if both GOP judges born in the 1940s left, but the chances of that happening are slim. In any event, that doesn't tell the whole story.

In any case, the biggest problem is that they are attributing 47 appointments to Obama in his first term.

And it won't only be an Obama making COA and SC nominations, it will be a liberal Democratic Senate confirming them. New COA judges not only will be liberal, they will be extreme!