ConfirmThem

By Quin Posted in Uncategorized — Comments () / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

I trust Jan Greenburg of the Chicago Tribune. Her past record shows her to be well plugged in. Her report yesterday mentioned, definitely, seven names: Alito, Gonzales, Luttig, Miers, Owen, Thompson and Williams. Today she mentions only four: Alito, Luttig, Miers and Gonzales. None of that squares with all the other reports that Thompson remains very much in the running, nor with the reports that Batchelder is still alive. But it sorta makes sense, knowing the way Bush operates. He wants another Roberts, meaning he wants somebody of impeccable credentials who also is a judical conservative but who has nothing so imflammatory in his/her record (a la the wonderful Edith Jones) that she would turn off GOP mods like the Maine ladies and even Specter. Only two fit that bill, Luttig and Alito -- although Batchelder, except for the clerkships and high-powered college, comes awfully close. On the other hand, Bush is a guy with a weakness for sticking with people he knows personally, because he believes he can see into their hearts. (Putin, anyone?) Owen fits that bill, but (despite my longstanding prediction that Bush would pick her) POTUS seems now to be convinced she would provoke too much of a fight from the left without enough credit from the right. The only two others are, of course, Miers and Gonzo. So his choice is a friend, Gonzo or Miers, or somebody qualified even though the choice isn't a woman or minority -- hence the terrific Alito or Luttig. Then, still in his mind, but on the outskirts, are Batchelder and Thompson, which would mean Greenburg has it wrong but the other reports have it right.

My take: Gonzo and Miers shouldn't even be on the list. Too much insider baseball there (among other problems well known to us). Alito has been my favorite choice all along. (Not my prediction, which was Owen, but my personal first choice considering all the circumstances.) Luttig has some quirks, but he is a brilliant originalist and would be superb for years -- with the added advantage that Souter likes him, because he helped defend Souter against Ted Kennedy, so Luttig might actually draw Souter back to the center. Meanwhile, Batchelder, from everything I've read, seems absolutely splendid, and she would help rally a dreadfully weakened Ohio GOP. And Thompson is -- PLEASE believe me on this -- about as good a guy as we would ever want.
In short, if there were no political considerations, I would go, in this order, (of the six I think are finalists) Alito, Luttig, Batchelder, Thompson, with any of those four being not just acceptable but superb. Considering the politics of the situation as well, I would go Batchelder, Thompson, Alito, Luttig in that order.

Oh... and one more note: I repeat that if all of this analysis is wrong, and he nominates Mahoney, I will try to lead a huge revolt. The Michigan case -- and her SUBSEQUENT defense of it as well -- is a disqualifier unless and until she serves serious time on a federal circuit bench establishing a record that makes up for it.