ConfirmThem

By AndrewHyman Posted in Senate Rules — Comments () / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Crowley recently had an article in Slate titled "The Not-So-Fantastic Four: The demise of the Republican moderates." An excerpt:

The ultimate defeat of the moderates . . . would be the successful activation of the nuclear option. Scuttling the filibuster for judicial nominees is an affront to everything the moderates have tried to promote: bipartisanship, compromise, and a check on the right wing's excesses. So far, the moderates' refusal to play along---along with the nervousness of traditionalists like Virginia's John Warner about the long-term effects on the Senate---have made it extremely difficult for Frist to corral the necessary votes. But the Republicans are close, and if Frist find a way to drop the Bomb, the moderates' lack of clout will be proved. And in the all-out partisan warfare that would be sure to follow---call it nuclear winter---they'd be stuck in a bleak no-man's land. If that happens, it'll be enough to make the Fantastic Four wish they really were "in a comic book.

This analysis strikes me as way off the mark. If the "constitutional option" (also known as the "Byrd Option") succeeds, then 51 votes will thereafter be needed to confirm nominations (the way it used to be for centuries). Thus, the votes of the GOP moderates would be essential to confirm Bush's judicial nominees, and the GOP moderates would be in a position to shoot down far-right wacko nominees.

But now consider what happens if the "constitutional option" fails (perish the thought). In that case, it would take 60 votes to confirm a judicial nomination, and so the GOP moderates would no longer be the deciding voices; 41 Democrats would be enough to sideline any of Bush's nominees. Looking at things this way, it would be self-defeating for the GOP moderates to oppose the "constitutional option." They would lose power and influence. Likewise, liberal advocacy groups are unlikely to win the day by continuing to argue that the GOP moderates are "rubberstamps" for President Bush.