ConfirmThem

What an amazing pick. John McCain proved two things beyond doubt today: he sure can keep a secret, and he is indeed a maverick. This is just great, I think. As Curt indicates, there are lots of unanswered questions, but wow, what a great thing.

I think Palin is a great pick. She has two years as the administrator of a state government. That is two more years of executive experience than Barack Obama has. The liberal MSM is squirming all over the place at this choice. The CNN commentators are almost apoplectic. Wolf Blitzer, Campbell Brown, Paul Bengala and James Carville are obviously horrified. They can't believe that McCain so successfully outfoxed Obama in such a creative way. Great!

Palin has eight years of executive experience, since being a mayor for six years is of course also executive experience.

With all due respect, it's a little overenthusiastic to say that McCain "so successfully outfoxed Obama in such a creative way." She didn't exactly come out of left field (she'd been on his short list for awhile), and McCain's not, I think most of us would agree, some kind of mad genius. He made a high-risk, high-reward pick of a woman who, to be brutally honest, he doesn't even know that well. She'll definitely, importantly, help him hold the base, which may well be her single best attribute. And she'll succeed if she draws lots of female Hillary voters who wouldn't vote GOP otherwise. But it's really early, and "executive experience" or not, she's undisputedly very inexperienced and carries real risks. Can she get up to speed in time on the issues? (she hardly has the skill set that, say, Cheney did in the fall of 2000). She has absolutely no experience with national foreign policy or national domestic issues. Can she attract any enthusiasm beyond that of politics-obsessed people like those of us on this site? History shows that even VP candidates who are thought to have broad appeal can wilt in the heat of a campaign (see Kemp, Jack). And can she even draw many Hillaristas? Esp. since the MSM undoubtedly will play up her stance on abortion and her limited experience (and governing one of the least populous states for 21 months is hardly preparation for VP -- the NRO's Ramesh Ponnuru wrote as much today). I think some caution is in order here. She gave a good speech today, but it's a long way until November.

I'd think if:
- 80-90% of HRC voters vote Obama and
- 5-10% of HRC voters vote McCain/Palin primarily because of Palin and
- 5-10% of HRC voters sit it out because they won't vote McCain but don't like the way Obama/Biden/DNC trash Palin
then come January we'll have President McCain and Obama working on his Senate re-election campaign.

I have to believe that the left is hysterical now because it only takes a small impact on the Hillary people that they trashed for the past few months to have a big impact in the Electoral College results. Oh and by the way, it helps that in addition to trashing Palin they are trashing small-town America, another demographic group that Obama needs some level of support from.

On the radar? You might try this out:

http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/aug/29/democrats-caught-fl...

And her "inexperience" is her strength. How do the dems bring it up, when she has more executive experience in her little finger than Obama does? It's a terrific trap!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" - Defoe

Last night at the bar, I asked four different tattoed/pierced riot grrl types what they thought of Palin. Three in their mid-twenties basically repeated the inexperience off the table/Hillaryites won't be fooled meme word for word. The fourth, early 30's, looked down and almost guiltily said, "I think it's pretty f'n cool, to be honest".

My 74 year-old mother, her friends, and my older aunts & uncles, all non-religious, non-judgmental types (albeit have lived almost their entire lives in lily-white suburbs); who think Bush has done a lousy job, hate the Cheney/Rove nastiness & Rush/Hannity/O'Reilly screamfests, and think McCain is too old, all to varying degrees love the pick of Palin, and have indicated it's swayed them to vote for McCain.

If the above "numbers" hold nationwide, and Palin doesn't turn into Quayla Eaglenew, McCain will probably win.

Palin's going to remind a lot of seniors and rural folks of their daughters and grand-daughters, and sadly or not, will also provide "cover" to vote against a liberal black man for POTUS, regardless of his non-theatening appearance and soothing eloquence.

STEVENS, J., filed a dissenting opinion, in which SCALIA, J., joined.

The primary point of this pick was not to pick up moderates or disgruntled Dems. While a few may come over because of her, I doubt it will be significant. The main point of this pick was to excite the base without picking a flamethrower. With that criteria, I consider it highly successful. The only conservative I heard who was upset about this pick that I could tell was Michael Savage but he is never happy anyway. The base, particularly the social conservaties, really did not like/trust McCain. He hit a homerun with them with Palin. Really PROLIFE, pro gun, pro God, pro family, etc. If the GOP is to win elections, it is because of an excited base, not because of moderates!!! Bush proved this in 2004. Lieberman, Ridge, etc would have been total disasters that divided the base. Rush/Dobson/Hannity etc hate McCain and some have even said they would not vote for him under any circumstances. This Palin pick gives them cover to change their mind as Dobson has already done. This election is not about conservative making a point that they dont like McCain. There is too much at stake SCOTUS at the top of the list. McCain needed to throw a bone to the base to make them happy with this pick, PERIOD. Anything else is totally secondary.

"The primary point of this pick was not to pick up moderates or disgruntled Dems. While a few may come over because of her, I doubt it will be significant."

[sorryaboutthetypoes. I'm writing from a computer with an iffy keyboardnear the Twin Cities as I prepare to attend whatever this convention is becoming.]

The pick of Pallin energizes the base, which means--among other things--that they will be much more voted to get out the vote in keystates such as Ohio, IA, etc.

The pick of Palin does appeal to moms of all kinds.

She will provide cover for some Clinton supporters--the PUMAs and centrists that Ferraro spoke of. Even Dobson's pointed out it won't takea large percentage of Clinton Dems going to McCain to tip the election in his favor.

She appeals to small town folks (the Obama camp stepped into that again.).

Most of all --she's authentic, and that appeals to just about every one with even a half way open mind.

I think that while there will be some hard core Hillary voters who come over, this will cut most into the older female Demographic who weren't thrilled to death about seeing Hillary, per se make it, but who still remember a time when women (maybe even themselves) had many fewer options for meeting their dreams and think that the symbolic nature of a Palin victory would mean a lot for women.

Also, though, I think there are some Hillary voters out there who are either strategic enough (Hillary '12 is easier running against McCain than against Obama in the primary) or angry enough (Hillary got screwed) to swallow their feelings and vote for McCain. They may not have been swung by the Palin pick, but they have undoubtedly been reinforced on the issue.

As for if it will matter, I'd guess we'll see a +3% to +5% turnout of the base because of the pick and a 1 to 2% pickup from Dem --> GOP.

However, Palin HAS to acquit herself well against Biden or it will all go down the tubes.

I wouldn't be looking forward to that debate. He continues to step in it with his mouth, inc. telling Israel to learn to live with a nuclear Iran! I spoke with a Florida delegate today who was irate about that. Yes, I'm attending the convention as a guest. I also saw at least 3 Palin hairdos!

Sigh. At least this was released now so it can blow over.

Unless they're lying about this being her first grandchild and not her 2nd.

Trig (the son) was born in April. Palin's daughter is in her fifth month of her pregnancy. What, did she get pregnant with this baby while she was still pregnant with Trig?, or almost the next day after delivering Trig? Unless the dates being reported are wrong, the people who started those rumors are beyond repugnant.